Home sales to rise?

According to projections from residential mortgage insurance and credit enhancement product provider The PMI Group (PMI), national homes sales are expected to rise 10% year-over-year basis during the Q409, but the sharp drop in sales earlier in 2009 will keep yearly sales on par with ‘08 levels. The report projects that the oversupply of housing inventory will drop median housing prices 12.5% by the end of 2009, but that a boost in the second half of 2010 not only stabilize prices but increase sales of existing homes by 9.4% and new home sales by 21.6%. PMI anticipates that Federal Reserve policies will remain constant and short-term interest rates should remain close to current levels, although long-term rates will “edge upward” next year. According to the report, “ultimately, both long- and short-term rates will rise substantially once the Fed begins to tighten in earnest – with the yield curve beginning to flatten at that time.” The report also projects a 33% increase over last year in mortgage originations by the end of 2009. As purchase mortgages decrease 6.1%, there will be a projected increase in the share refinance mortgages to 66% of all mortgages originated in the year, but that will shift in 2010. PMI projects that origination will decline by 22%, but purchase activity will take a 15% greater share of the market, and the refinance share will drop to 50%.

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